This isn’t making any headlines.
IHS’s June report is right here, and it confirms that the economic system basically went nowhere in Could and June.
Particularly, listed below are the revised figures for the 4 most lately reported months:
March – $19.251T
April – $19.358T
Could – $19.364T
June – $19.357T
March, April, and Could had been all revised barely downward from IHS’s Could report — to the purpose the place your assertion that “The total size of the economy has now surpassed its pre-pandemic level” is barely true, and will simply turn out to be false if August’s or September’s numbers are revised downward by even the slightest quantity.
Extra to the purpose, as seen in graphic beneath, the economic system clearly stagnated in Could and June, to the purpose the place IHS’s narrative acknowledged (daring mine, italics theirs) that “the level of GDP in June was actually 0.1% below the second-quarter average at an annual rate.”
What additionally is clear is that President Trump introduced the economic system again to 92% of its earlier excessive earlier than he left workplace.
That is NOT a “solid” second-quarter efficiency. IHS’s knowledge additionally makes a mockery of those (and different) statements in your report:
– ” the nation has achieved a sustained restoration from the pandemic recession.” Two flat months point out that the restoration is something however “sustained” — particularly with unemployment nonetheless close to 6%, exploding federal debt, and declining wages.
– “For now, the economy is showing sustained strength.” Once more, the previous two months have been flat, at greatest.
– Your cherry-picked assertion about wages (“average hourly pay rose a solid 3.6% compared with a year earlier”) is a pathetic coverup of actuality. It ignores the truth that authorities/BLS figures inform us that wages have fallen 2.3 p.c within the first 5 full months of the brand new administration in actual phrases (CPI-U up 3.9 p.c, wages up just one.6 p.c).
IHS’s newest month-to-month report and different latest knowledge are greater than seemingly ringing alarm bells on the White Home and the Fed. Why gained’t allegedly intrepid reporters with many years of expertise and an in depth community of contacts such as you inform the general public what’s actually occurring?